Greenwitch

I feel like howling today

Kids are on Holiday next week which comes at a really good time and at the end of the month I will be making sure my flu kit is in place , I will write up about it later so that if anyone reads this other than me it might inspire someone to do the same .

Swine flu cases almost double within a week
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Swine flu vaccine: As many as 35,000 people could require hospital treatment. Photograph: Thomas Lohnes/AFP/Getty Images
Cases of swine flu in the UK have almost doubled this week, the Department of Health revealed today, as the outbreak imposes increasing pressure on intensive care beds.
So far 122 people have died after contracting the H1N1 virus and more than 500 are being treated in hospital, of whom 99 are in critical care – the highest figure since the disease emerged. Children appear to be vulnerable to higher rates of infection.
Emergency planners have, however, downgraded the UK's worst case scenario, calculating this month that as many as 1,000 people could die during the pandemic infection. Far more of the victims are likely to be younger patients, unlike the normal pattern of seasonal flu, which affects the elderly most severely.
Estimates of likely casualties have come down progressively over the past few months from an initial upper assessment of 65,000 deaths, later reduced to 19,000 and now cut back again.
The government's emergency contingency committee, Cobra, met this morning to consider the disease's progress. The number of cases has climbed over the past week from 27,000 to 53,000.
Following the deaths of two children at the same special needs school in Northern Ireland in the space of a week, those in special schools may be given extra priority for vaccination.
Revised guidance for NHS planners, released today, suggests that as many as 35,000 people could require hospital treatment during the outbreak and as much as 15% of that number may need critical care treatment.
In the peak week of the outbreak, expected sometime this winter, up to 1.5 million people could be suffering from swine flu, the new guidance suggests. A third of the UK's children could catch the virus, whereas the "clinical attack rate" for the rest of the population is expected to be around 12%. Infection rates are higher in northern England at present.
No proof swine flu is getting deadlier despite death toll
Oct 23 2009 by Madeleine Brindley, Western Mail
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THERE is no evidence the swine flu virus is becoming more deadly despite an increase in the number of people who have died, experts said.
Public health officials last night described the seven Welsh swine flu-related deaths as “personal tragedies” but said they were not unexpected.
Wales has been warned that the H1N1 virus will cause more deaths during the winter. But the latest government predictions suggest that fewer people will be affected by the H1N1 virus than had previously been thought.
Officials now estimate that 12% of the population – about 360,000 people in Wales – will fall ill this winter. Almost a third are expected to be children under 16.
And around 1,750 people could be admitted to hospital with swine flu over the next four months.

I wanted to save these predictions here so that we can be reminded of them as the year goes on.

The first one on the page is the London predictions and the second is Wales.